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State Analyst: A Census Undercount Wouldn't Cripple State

The state Legislative Analyst’s Office has issued a report on California’s efforts to ensure a complete count for the national 2020 Census, and it has some interesting takeaways

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The state Legislative Analyst’s Office has issued a report on California’s efforts to ensure a complete count for the national 2020 Census, and it has some interesting takeaways:

— The state is spending $2.47 per person in outreach. In a sampling included in the LAO report, other states and their spending are significantly less: Maryland spends 81 cents per person, Georgia spends 21 cents, and Virginia is spending just 1 cent per person on outreach.

— The impact of an accurate count on California is important, but the downsides to an undercount may not be as significant as some say. The state is unlikely to lose a congressional seat, and the loss of federal funding is not expected to be huge because most federal money is administered directly to individuals, not through the state. 

— The state is using primarily off-the-shelf commercial software to oversee its efforts.

“There are a variety of reasons to believe that California could experience an undercount in 2020,” the LAO’s executive summary says. “First, the state experienced greater undercounts than the rest of the nation in all of the past three Censuses. Second, the state has a higher share of people who historically have been more difficult to count relative to the rest of the nation (referred to as the hard-to-count population). This hard-to-count population includes immigrants, who may be even harder to count in 2020 than they were in the past."

The state efforts are being overseen by California Complete Count — Census 2020, an entity that works with other state agencies to ensure an accurate headcount. Diana Crofts-Pelayo, the agency’s communications chief for External Affairs and Media Relations, said the stakes are nonetheless high for the state. 

As part of the 2017-18 Budget Act, the state provided $7 million in incentive grants for local governments to assist the Census Bureau in updating its address list, and $3 million for other preparation efforts. In 2018-19, the state allotted an additional $90.3 million for outreach activities.

“California has invested more than ever into the Census to expand our outreach efforts in communities across the state, especially in areas that are identified as hard-to-count,” Crofts-Pelayo told Techwire. “While the findings in the LAO’s report may be positive for California in general, the impacts of an undercount in the state will be felt more deeply in some areas than in others, particularly those with high percentages of hard-to-count populations.” 

The spending, she explained, is going toward “a massive outreach and media campaign to bring awareness to everyone statewide.”

The California Department of Technology is helping out too.

“The Census Office is developing the Statewide Outreach and Rapid Deployment (SwORD) mapping portal to foster data sharing, coordination and collaboration in a user-friendly format,” according to Alice Scott-Rowe, deputy communications director for the CDT. “SwORD will provide informed planning and decision-making data for the California Complete Count — Census 2020 Office's outreach and messaging partners, including local governments, foundations, community-based organizations and other non-government organizations,” she told Techwire

“The California Department of Technology is working with the state Census Office to ensure that SwORD complies with the State of California's Security and Information Technology Project Policies," said Scott-Rowe. "Our initial steps are collaborating with the Census Office via the project approval lifecycle (PAL) process, which includes activities appropriate to engage stakeholders and address key risk areas such as enterprise architecture and security to facilitate the achievement of project objectives.” 

Crofts-Pelayo said SwORD’s mapping portal “will be used to foster data sharing, coordination and collaboration in a user-friendly format for the state and its stakeholders.” California Counts contracted with the geographic information system (GIS) mapping and spatial data analytics company Esri to leverage its ArcGIS Hub, a commercial, off-the-shelf product.  

The state's Census site offers a variety of reports and resources. Census Day is April 1, 2020. 

Dennis Noone is Executive Editor of Industry Insider. He is a career journalist, having worked at small-town newspapers and major metropolitan dailies including USA Today in Washington, D.C.